Snowfall Advisory_122623
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Issued 23:00 UTC +8, Dec. 26.
The Snowfall Advisory Signal No.3 was issued at 23:00 UTC +8, Dec. 26, 2020. There is at least a 50% chance of snowfall in urban Beijing in the following three days or at least a 30% chance of snow accumulation.
The blogger was in no mood to write the forecast reasoning in Chinese, so please forgive the blogger for issuing the forecast in English. In times of severe episodes of depression, the forecast may even be issued in Japanese or German.
The European models grew slightly more optimistic for snowfall throughout Dec. 25-26, with both ECMWF and ACCESS-G forecasting trace amounts of precipitation. However, all but one members of the GFS model forecasted against any precipitation on Dec. 28-29.
The temperature and dynamics will be decisively favorable for snowfall during the night of Dec. 28, with vapor being the limiting factor. Since the situation is extremely similar to that of Dec. 12 (the blogger could not recall the exact date), there is reason to expect trace amounts of snowfall in urban Beijing.
In summary, it's a toss-up for snowfall on the night of Dec. 28, while the chance of accumulation remains minimal. The total amount of precipitation is expected to be around 0.2 mm.
RBSN 12262300 13500 00353
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