Snowfall Forecast (Beijing)_020911
Issued 03:00 UTC, 9 Feb 2021.
Snowfall forecast is issued at 11 a.m. There is a chance of snowfall in urban Beijing within a week. A cold wave of moderate strength is forecast to sweep across eastern China during 14-15 Feb, bringing scattered precipitation for the North China plain. According to ECMWF, the temperature is favorable for snowfall in urban Beijing, in the range of -5~0 ℃ at 2 m and -14 to -8 ℃ at 850 hPa. However, GFS shows a more sophisticated picture with the temperature above freezing at ground level and freezing level (MASL) around 500 m at the start of precipitation. This could mean anything from rain to accumulating snow, but the most likely scenario is a wintry mix changing to snow with little to no accumulation. Most models and members show at least some solid precipitation during 13-15 Feb. Overall, the blogger sets the chance of precipitation at 90%, snow at 80%, and accumulating snow at 50%. Such long-range forecasts usually have a huge amount of uncertainty, but if the ECMWF scenario comes true, significant accumulation is more than possible. Therefore, the possibility of the Snowman Special Warning No. 10 being issued cannot be ruled out.
RBSN 02091100 01853 558X4
